El FMI acordó con Argentina desembolsar 5.200 millones de dólares en marzo y cambiarían las metas de reservas para 2023
Tras dos reuniones de Sergio Massa con Kristalina Georgieva en Bengaluru (India) y más de 140 horas de zoom entre el equipo del Ministerio de Economía en Buenos Aires y el staff del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) en Washington, Argentina logró un desembolso de 5.200 millones de dólares en marzo y una modificación sustancial en la meta de reservas del Banco Central para 2023 como consecuencia de la grave sequía.
El desembolso de 5.200 millones de dólares es consecuencia del cumplimiento de las metas acordadas con el FMI para el último trimestre de 2022. Esas metas se vinculan al déficit fiscal, la emisión monetaria y las reservas del Banco Central. El board del Fondo se reunirá la semana próxima para convalidar el Staff Level Agreement que será difundido en pocas horas.
Massa decidió viajar a Bengaluru (India) para reunirse con Kristalina Georgieva y explicar que la sequía en la Argentina y las consecuencias económicas de la guerra en Ucrania habían afectado el ingreso de reservas al Banco Central. El titular del Palacio de Hacienda y la directora gerente del FMI se encontraron dos veces en el marco de la cumbre del G20, y allí acordaron modificar las metas de reservas previstas para 2023.
Antes del nuevo acuerdo que hoy sería anunciado en Washington, Argentina se había comprometido a incorporar 5.500 millones de dólares durante el primer trimestre de este año. Un cifra inalcanzable como consecuencia de la sequía y el conflicto en Europa.
La Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (BCR) recortó el miércoles pasado a 27 millones de toneladas su estimación de cosecha de soja del ciclo 2022/23, desde los 34,5 millones estimados previamente, y redujo a 35 millones de toneladas su previsión para el maíz, desde los 42,5 millones que había anunciado en febrero.
Esos números devastadores implican una pérdida para el productor de casi 14.000 millones de dólares en soja, maíz y trigo con su consecuencia inmediata en el flujo de reservas del Banco Central. Massa explicó a Georgieva esta inédita situación y los equipos técnicos de Economía repitieron idénticos argumentos con el staff del FMI.
En la tarde de ayer, finalmente, se definió la letra chica del consenso que alivia la meta prevista para las reservas del Banco Central durante 2023.
Sergio Massa y Marco Lavagna se reunieron con Kristalina Georgieva y Gita Gopinath -vice directora del FMI- durante la cumbre del G20 en BengaluruAdemás de explicar a Georgieva las consecuencias de la sequía, Massa entregó a la directora gerente un un paper del Palacio de Hacienda que describe con exactitud el impacto de la guerra en Ucrania respecto a la disposición extraordinaria de divisas que tuvo que ejecutar la Argentina.
“La guerra en Ucrania ocasionó importantes cambios en el escenario económico mundial, que generó un efecto negativo de US$ 4.940 millones en la balanza comercial que se atribuye a un shock general de precios internacionales del sector agropecuario (soja 9,4%, trigo 33,7% y maíz 17,8%) y sobre el precio de los combustibles (Gas de Bolivia 114%, GNL 233% y Gasoil 85%)”, revela el informe sobre el costo de la guerra que preparó la cartera de Economía.
Georgieva abrió la mano en cuanto a la meta de reservas, pero a continuación exigió medidas puntuales para terminar con el sistema de subsidios energéticos que benefician a hogares de altos ingresos. La directora gerente hizo este planteo durante su ultimo encuentro con Massa, y el ministro de Economía se comprometió a resolver este asunto en los próximos meses.
En conclusión, el staff del FMI anunciará hoy que se formalizará un desembolso de 5.200 millones de dólares antes que finalice marzo, que se modificó la meta de reservas del Banco Central para 2023 y que habrá un control estricto de los subsidios a la energía para evitar que se afecte la meta de déficit fiscal.
Fuente: Infobae
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